Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic Process On Cryptocurrencies and Exchange Rates: Correlation and Multivariate Regression Analysis

Abstract

The financial sector is trying to adapt to the process by rapidly digitizing in order to respond to the changing needs with the development of technology. Since the inception of the first cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, in 2009, there is uncertainty to cryptocurrency market about the stability of it, and doubts. Ethereum, Tether, Binance Coin, XRP, Solana, Cardona, Terra are other top cryptocurrencies. New types of virtual currencies continue to be created. The interest of the crypto money market, which has more than 10,000 types, is increasing day by day. Due to the Covid-19 virus, which appeared in Wuhan province, China on December 31, 2019, technological developments have sped and the cryptocurrency market managed in the virtual environment has become active. In the study, the relationship of selected cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, Euro and Ons to Covid-19 cases and Covid-19 deaths was examined using Spearman Correlation Analysis. All data sets were analyzed with the Shapiro-Wilk Normality Test. Datasets are not normally distributed. In the first year of the pandemic, it was obtained that there was a positive and strong relationship between cryptocurrency and foreign currency values and Covid-19 variables. In the second year, effect of the pandemic decreased on the financial market and the direction of the relationship changed. In addition, when the error rates for the five models selected with the highest level of significance by Multivariate Regression Analysis are examined, it was obtained result that 85% or more of the models were modeled correctly.