Open Access

Investigating the Factors Affecting Turkey’s Wheat Flour Export Leadership with K-Means Clustering and Discriminant Analysis

1 Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences,Department of Industrial Engineering, Ankara
2 Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Faculty of Engineering and Natural Sciences,Department of Industrial Engineering, Ankara

Abstract

Some countries have important roles in the production of certain agricultural products depending on their geographical conditions. However, the rankings of countries may change over time due to natural factors (temperature, rainfall) and political reasons (wars, economic situation). Turkey holds an important position in the world in wheat production and is also among the leading countries in wheat flour exports. This study examines the main factors influencing Türkiye's role in wheat flour exports and evaluates their impact on export strategies. Data from Trade Map and other international databases covering 2023 wheat flour trade for 105 countries were analysed using multivariate statistical methods (MSM), including Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA), K-Means Clustering (KMCA), and Discriminant Analysis (DA). HCA was applied to group and examine the data more accurately and to determine the number of clusters. After dividing the data, K-Means Cluster Analysis was applied for optimization and separation the countries into 6 clusters. Discriminant Analysis was then used to identify the functions and indicators, most effective in forming these clusters. The sequential analyses provided more accurate interpretations and evaluations. Both K-Means Cluster Analysis and Discriminant Analysis results were compatible, showing that the factors most affecting Türkiye's wheat flour exports are population and currency change rate. These findings offer valuable insights for trade and economic policymakers aiming to strengthen Turkey’s strategic role in global wheat flour exports.

Keywords

How to Cite

ÇALIŞKAN GÜLER, M., & EFENDİOĞLU, D. (2025). Investigating the Factors Affecting Turkey’s Wheat Flour Export Leadership with K-Means Clustering and Discriminant Analysis. MAS Journal of Applied Sciences, 10(4), 656–673. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17769324

References

📄 Akbaba, S.Ö., 2005. Quadratic discriminant analysis and error rate estimation. Master's thesis. Ankara University, Institute of Science, Ankara.
📄 Anonymus, 2024a. Foreign Agricultural Service. Erişim linki (https://www.fas .usda.gov/) (Accessed:10.09.2024).
📄 Anonymus, 2024b. World Population Review. Erişim linki (https://worldpopulatio nreview.com/) (Accessed:10.09.2024).
📄 Anonymus, 2024c. Xe Business. Erişim linki (https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/) (Accessed:10.09.2024).
📄 Anonymus, 2024d. Trade Map. Erişim linki (https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx) (Accessed:10.09.2024).